Exclusive Russia Report: Russian product exports – short & long-term trends & challenges

Exclusive Russia Report: Russian product exports – short & long-term trends & challenges

In this Exclusive Russia report, we focus on product exports, including the short-term challenges amidst Ukrainian drone attacks on crude refineries, what to take away from the record amount of Russian product at sea, and review the overall reallocation of product flows a year after European sanctions have been fully implemented.

04 April, 2024
David Wech
David Wech, Chief Economist
Key report takeaways:
  • Review of latest trends in Russian oil exports with a focus on products
    • Gasoil/diesel exports are inevitably set to fall
    • This is already a function of seasonal maintenance and rising domestic demand
    • Ukrainian drone attacks may aggravate the situation, but this is not a given on a year-on-year basis
  • A lot of Russian product is stuck at sea currently
    • Most pronounced for gasoil/diesel and Baltic exports
    • Increased scrutiny and awareness of sanctions may be a contributing factor
  • Review of long-term adjustments in Russian product exports and European (US) products flows
    • Look at diesel, light distillates, residual fuels
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David Wech
Chief Economist
Vortexa
David Wech
David Wech is contributing his extensive experience in research operations across strategy execution, product development, supply and demand modelling, competitive market positioning, commodity analysis and price forecasting. Before joining Vortexa, he spent 18 years at JBC Energy, including 8 years as Managing Director and 7 years as the Head of Research.