Crude Market Highlights: Tariffs loom as Americas production and Asia demand growth wanes
This report explores slowing Americas crude production, tariff threat looming over ~5mbd of crude and refined products coming into the US, Asia’s stagnating crude import demand, and Europe pivoting to the Middle East for medium/heavy sour crude imports.
04 March, 2025
Key report takeaways:
- Americas crude exports are on the wane as production growth slows despite upticks from a handful of basins
- Potential US tariffs, retaliatory measures to upend trade flows; TMX increasingly eyed as outlet to redirect Canadian crude
- Asia’s crude import demand growth mainly from India in 2025, amid new refining capacities, while rest of Asia stagnates
- India’s crude imports increase but Russian share falls due to lower loadings from Russia Far East and Arctic
- Lower Norwegian and Kazakh crude supplies prompts Europe to pivot to Middle East medium/heavy sour crude imports
- Saudi crude/condensates “front-loading” at record levels in recent weeks, February shows continuation of trend.
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