Global clean product exports hit seasonal highs

Global clean product (excl. LPG) exports hit seasonal highs of over ~25mbd in September, driven largely by middle distillate and more recently gasoline margin strength. Similar levels were last observed in March-24, but September exports come off the back of strong exports over previous three months. This begs the question, whether there is enough demand side appetite to absorb these barrels?

Global seaborne clean product (excl. LPG) exports (bd) 

India and Europe drive growth 

This growth in seaborne exports which started in second half 2025 is being driven by exports from India West Coast, Northwest Europe and the Med. This strength was mainly driven by motor fuels and strong margins keeping refiners running harder. The US Gulf Coast also remains a key swing supplier of motor fuels to LatAm, although its share has fluctuated amid Russian inroads into the region and domestic consumption strength. 

Preliminary data for October (days 1-12) does suggest a slowdown in exports albeit in line with seasonal norms, but we expect some of this decline driven by India West Coast and Russia. In India it is the Diwali holiday season, which is keeping barrels domestic, while in Russia, a combination of agricultural demand, increased drone attacks on refinery infrastructure and government ban on diesel and gasoline exports amidst these drone attacks is behind export slowdown. While looking at who is sending out these barrels it is also necessary to look at key demand markets and whether there is enough demand strength to absorb these barrels.

Global y-o-y change in seaborne motor fuel imports by destination wider shipping region (bd) 

No winners in terms of demand strength 

In terms of demand strength for motor fuels, we have observed strong y-o-y growth in imports from the Wider Arabian Sea and Wider Med, over the past five months. While traditional demand centres in Northwest Europe and Northeast Asia have seen muted imports.  

More recently, demand strength has emerged in pockets along Americas West Coast, mainly driven by refinery closures and outages in California. This part of the world will increase its reliance on imported motor fuels with the closure of P66 Los Angeles refinery this month and the upcoming closure of Valero Benicia refinery in spring of 2026. 

As for the rest of the world, no clear winners are seen in terms of demand strength in 2025, and it is likely to remain like this for the remainder of the year. That brings us back to our initial question as to where these CPP barrels will end up. Storage remains the answer in the short term but is not likely a sustainable solution given margin strength will keep refineries running harder and pushing out more barrels on the water.